Tourism Development Policy and the Use of Scenario Analysis: A synthesis model

Marco Martins; Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra; Lara Santos

doi:10.25145/j.pasos.2022.20.074

Autores

Marco Martins Investigador independente https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2085-6020
Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra Polythecnic Institute of Guarda https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8788-781X
Lara Santos Universidade Lusófona https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6927-8906

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2022.20.074

Palavras-chave:

Análise de cenários, COVID-19, Formuladores de políticas, Processos de desenvolvimento de cenários, Política de desenvolvimento turístico

Resumo

A pandemia da COVID-19 fez-nos aprender a viver com um sentido renovado de limites e um novo nível de incerteza. Uma das respostas de governação que emergiu deste cenário foi a mudança para a análise de cenários, o que gera narrativas sobre múltiplas possibilidades futuras. Este artigo tenta responder às questões de porquê e como utilizar a análise de cenários ao definir a política de desenvolvimento turístico. Uma revisão semi-sistemática deste estudo é realizada com a intenção de alargar o campo de discussão e explorar novas vias ligadas ao tema da política de desenvolvimento turístico. No que respeita à política de desenvolvimento turístico, a utilização de cenários pode ser uma técnica experimental valiosa para o desenvolvimento de ideias inovadoras. Para o efeito, este artigo propõe um modelo de processo de desenvolvimento de um cenário para os decisores políticos e decisores.

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Biografia do Autor

Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra, Polythecnic Institute of Guarda

Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra é doutorado em Turismo, Lazer e Cultura (2016) pela Universidade de Coimbra, cuja tese está ligada ao turismo de saúde e bem-estar e estratégias de desenvolvimento local. Concluiu o Mestrado em Gestão e Desenvolvimento em Turismo (2009) e a Licenciatura em Gestão e Planeamento em Turismo (2002) ambos pela Universidade de Aveiro. Recentemente, obteve o Título de Especialista em Hotelaria e Restauração (2021). Fora do meio académico, assumiu funções de gestão e coordenação em diversas entidades, nomeadamente, na Visabeira Turismo, Golfe Montebelo, AHRESP, Termas das Caldas da Cavaca, Município de Aguiar da Beira e no projeto CLDS Foz Côa Mais Perto. Começou enquanto docente no ensino superior, a colaborar com o Instituto Politécnico da Guarda, a Universidade da Maia e o Instituto Politécnico de Viseu. Atualmente é Professor Adjunto e Subdiretor da Escola de Turismo e Hotelaria do Instituto Politécnico da Guarda, onde coordena a Licenciatura em Gestão Hoteleira e é membro do Conselho Técnico-Científico, do Conselho Pedagógico e da Unidade Técnico-Científica de Turismo e Hotelaria. É também o representante do Instituto Politécnico da Guarda na Rede de Instituições de Ensino Superior para a Preservação da Dieta Mediterrânica. É investigador integrado no CEGOT - Centro de Estudos em Geografia e Ordenamento do Território (I&D 04084/FCT, RG 3 - Turismo; Universidade de Coimbra) e colabora também com CETRAD, CITUR, UDI/IPG e CEDTUR e os seus principais interesses de investigação são turismo de saúde e bem-estar, gestão e desenvolvimento do turismo, turismo e hospitalidade, turismo sustentável, enoturismo, gastronomia, distribuição turística, marketing turístico e património cultural. Já publicou vários artigos, livros e capítulos de livros com peer-review, participou em projetos de investigação, coorientou teses de doutoramento, orientou e coorientou dissertações de mestrado, orientou cursos de formação de mestrado e licenciatura, participou em comissões científicas de eventos nacionais e internacionais relacionadas com o turismo e hospitalidade e recebeu um prémio.

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