Política de desarrollo turístico y uso del análisis de escenarios: Un modelo de síntesis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2022.20.074Palabras clave:
Análisis de Escenarios, COVID-19, Responsables Políticos, Proceso de Desarrollo de Escenarios, Política de Desarrollo TurísticoResumen
La pandemia de COVID-19 nos hizo aprender a vivir con un renovado sentido de los límites y un nuevo nivel de incertidumbre. Una de las respuestas de gobernanza que surgió de este panorama fue el cambio al análisis de escenarios, que genera narrativas sobre múltiples posibilidades futuras. Este artículo trata de responder a las preguntas de por qué y cómo utilizar el análisis de escenarios al definir la política de desarrollo turístico. Sobre este estudio se opta por realizar una revisión semissistemática con la intención de ampliar el campo de discusión y explorar nuevos caminos vinculados a la temática de la política de desarrollo turístico. Respecta a la política de desarrollo turístico, el uso de escenarios puede resultar una técnica experimental valiosa para desarrollar ideas innovadoras. Con ese fin, en este artículo se propone un modelo de proceso de desarrollo de escenarios para formuladores de políticas y tomadores de decisiones.
Descargas
Citas
Adam, P. (2015). Managing Internationalisation. Konstanz and München: UVK Verlagsgesellschaft mbH.
Aimilia, V., George, T., Gerassimos, Z. (2012). Tourism Planning and Policy in Selected Mountainous Areas of Greece. Tourismos, 7(2), 481-494.
Anderson, J. E. (2003). Public policymaking: An introduction. Boston: Houghton
Barma, N. H., Durbin, B., Lorber, E., Whitlark, R. E. (2016). “Imagine a World in Which”: Using Scenarios in Political Science. International Studies Perspectives, 17 (2), pp. 117–13. https://doi.org/10.1093/isp/ekv005
Baum, T., Szivas, E. (2008). HRD in tourism: A role for government? Tourism Management. 29(4), pp. 783-794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.09.002
Bavel, J.J.V., Baicker, K., Boggio, P.S. et al. (2020). Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response. Nature Human Behavior 4, 460–471. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0884-z
Brands, C., Wulf, T., & Meissner, P. (2013). Six tools for scenario-based strategic planning and their application. In B. Schwenker, & T. Wulf (Eds.), Scenario-based strategic planning. Developing strategies in an uncertain world (pp. 69–152). Gabler Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6_4
Bibri, S.E. (2018). Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development. European Journal of Futures Research, 6(13). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-018-0142-z
Blossom (2011). Bridging Long Term Scenario and Strategy Analysis: Organisation and Methods. European Environment Agency. Online available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/blossom
Bood, R.P., & Postma, T.J. (1997). Strategic Learning with Scenarios. European Management Journal, 15, 633-647.
Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, KH., Ekvall, T, Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. Futures. 38(7), pp. 723-739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002
Bostrom N. (2009) The Future of Humanity. In: Olsen J.K.B., Selinger E., Riis S. (eds) New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, (pp. 186-215). New Waves in Philosophy. London: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230227279_10
Cairney, P. (2012) Understanding Public Policy: Theories and Issues. Basingstoke: Palgrave.
Crow, M. M., and Sarewitz, D. (2001). "Nanotechnology and Societal Transformation". In Albert H. Teich, Stephen D. Nelson, Celia McEnaney and Stephen J. Lita (eds.), AAAS Science and Technology Policy Yearbook (pp. 89-101). Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Dodds, R. (2007) Sustainable Tourism and Policy Implementation: Lessons from the Case of Calviá, Spain. Current Issues in Tourism. 10(4), pp. 296-322. https://doi.org/10.2167/cit278.0
Dredge, D., & Jenkins, J. (2007). Tourism Policy and Planning. Brisbane: John Wiley & Sons
Duchek, S, (2020). Organizational resilience: a capability-based conceptualization. Business Research, 13, pp. 215-246. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40685-019-0085-7
Elliott, J. (1997). Tourism: Politics and public sector management. London: Routledge.
Eriksson, E. A. and Weber, K. M. (2008). Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75(4), pp. 462–482, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.006.
Fauré, E., Arushanyan, Y., Ekener, E., Miliutenko, S. & Finnveden, G. (2017). Methods for assessing scenarios from a sustainability perspective. European Journal of Futures Research, 5 - 17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-017-0121-9
Godet, M. (2000). The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65:1, 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00120-1
Guo, Y., Jiang, J., Li, S. (2019). A Sustainable Tourism Policy Research Review. Sustainability, 11(11), 3187. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113187
Hogwood, B.W., Gunn, L.A. (1984). Policy analysis for the real world. New York: Oxford University Press.
Hollinshead, K. (2004). A Primer in Ontological Craft: The Creative Capture of People and Places through Qualitative Research, In Phillimore J. & Goodson, L. (eds) QualitativeResearch in Tourism: Ontologies, Epistemologies and Methodologies (pp. 93-82). London: Routledge. p
Howlett M., Cashore B. (2014). Conceptualizing Public Policy. In: Engeli I., Allison C.R. (eds) Comparative Policy Studies. Research Methods Series (pp. 17-33) London: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137314154_2
Howlett, M., Ramesh M. (2005). Studying public policy, Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Hudson, B., Hunter, D. & Peckham, S. (2019). Policy failure and the policy-implementation gap: can policy support programs help?. Policy Design and Practice, 2(1), pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/25741292.2018.1540378
Hughes, N. (2013). Towards improving the relevance of scenarios for public policy questions: A proposed methodological framework for policy relevant low carbon scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 80(4), pp. 687-698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.07.009
Jenkins, W. I. (1978). Policy Analysis: A Political and Organizational Perspective. London: Martin Robertson.
Jenkins, C. L. (2015). Tourism policy and planning for developing countries: come critical issues. Tourism Recreation Research, 40(2), pp. 144-156. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2015.1045363
Kemmerling, A. and Makszin, K. (2018). When does policy diffusion affect political instability? Cases of excessive policy volatility in welfare policies in East Central Europe. In Batory A., Cartwright, A., and Stone, D. (eds), Policy Experiments, Failures and Innovations (pp. 26-44). Cheltenham/Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.
Khakee, A., (1991). Scenario construction for urban planning, Omega. 19(5), pp. 459-469.
Knill, C., & Tosun, J., (2008). Policy Making, Working Paper 01/2008. University of Konstanz, Germany: Also published as: Christoph Knill/Jale Tosun: Policy Making. In: Daniele Caramani (eds), Comparative Politics (pp. 495- 519). Oxford University Press.
Kosow, J.; Gaßner, R. (2008). Methods of Future Analysis: Assessment and Selection Criteria. Berlin: German Institute for Development Policy Studies.
Krutwaysho, O., Bramwell, B. (2010). Tourism policy implementation and society. Annals of Tourism Research, 37(3), pp. 670-691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2009.12.004
Lempert, R. J. (2019). Robust Decision Making. In Marchau, V., Walker, W., Bloemen, P., Popper, S., (Eds.), Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (pp. 23-51). https:/doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_2
Martins, M. (2018). Tourism Planning and Tourismphobia: An Analysis of the Strategic Tourism Plan of Barcelona 2010–2015. Journal of Tourism, Heritage & Services Marketing, 4(1), pp. 3-7. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1247519
Massé, P. (1966). Les attitudes envers l'avenir et leur influence sur le present. In: Darcet, J. (eds.), Étapes de la Prospective (pp. 335-344). Paris: Presse Universitaires de France. Online available: http://www.laprospective.fr/dyn/francais/memoire/texte_fondamentaux/cahier_prospective/cahier-3-les-etapes-de-la-prospective.pdf
OECD (2010). Tourism 2020: Policies to Promote Competitive and Sustainable Tourism. In OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2010, Paris: OECD publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/tour-2010-en
Peters, B. G. (2021). Advanced Introduction to Public Policy. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Ramirez, R., Mukherjee, M., Vezzoli, S., Kramer, A. M. (2015). Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research”, Futures, 71, pp.70-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.06.006
Ressler, R. W., Paxton, P., Velasco, K., Pivnick, L., Weiss, I., Eichstaedt, J. C., (2021). Nonprofits: A Public Policy Tool for the Promotion of Community Subjective Well-being. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, pp. 822-838. https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/muab010
Sarta, A., Durand, R., Vergne, J-P. (2020). Organizational Adaptation. Journal of Management, 47(1), pp. 43-75. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206320929088
Selin, C. (2006). Trust and illusive force of scenarios, Futures 38(1), pp. 1–14.
Sharma, T. (2017). Tourism Policy and Implementation in India: A center versus state tug.of-war. Advances in Hospitality and Leisure, 13, pp. 143-153. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1745-354220170000013008
Snyder, H. (2019). Literature review as a research methodology: An overview and guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 104, pp.333-339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.07.039
Spaniol, M. J., Rowland, N. J. (2019). Defining scenario. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(1), e3. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.3
Spaniol, M.J., Rowland, N. J. (2018). The scenario planning paradox. Futures, 95, pp. 33-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.006
Stratigea, A., Katsoni, V. (2015). A strategic policy scenario analysis framework for the sustainable tourist development of peripheral small island areas – the case of Lefkada Island – Greece. European Journal of Futures Resesearch. 3(5). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0063-z
Swedberg, R. (2020). Exploratory Research. In Elman, C., Gerring, J., Mahonet, J. (Eds.) The Production of Knowledge: Enhancing progress in social sciences (pp. 17-41). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108762519.002
UN–ECLAC (2020). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector in Latin America and the Caribbean, options for a sustainable and resilient recovery. Santiago: United Nations Publication. Online Available: https://www.cepal.org/sites/default/files/publication/files/46502/S2000751_en.pdf
UNWTO-UNEP (2012). Tourism in the green economy – background report. Madrid: UNWTO publications.
Vellecco, I. & Mancino, A. (2010). Sustainability and tourism development in three Italian destinations: Stakeholder’s opinions and behaviours. The Service Industry Journal, 30(13), pp. 2201-2223. https://doi.org/10.1080/02642060903287500
Vlami, A. ; Tsamos, G. ; Zacharatos, G. (2012). Tourism planning and policy in selected mountainous areas of Greece. Tourismos, 7 (2), pp.481-494.
Volkery, A., Ribeiro, T. (2009). Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76 (9), pp.1198-1207.
Van der Maren, J.-M. (1996). Méthodes de recherche pour l’éducation. Paris/Bruxelles: De Boeck Université.
Wang, D., Ap, J. (2013). Factors affecting tourism policy implementation: A conceptual framework and a case study in China. Tourism Management, 36, pp. 221-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.11.021
Walker, W. E., Marchau, V. A. W. J., kwakkel, J. H. (2019). Dynamic Adaptative Planning (DAP). In Marchau, V., Walker, W., Bloemen, P., Popper, S., (Eds.), Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (pp. 53-69). https:/doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2_3
Wies R. (1996). Policy Definition and Classification: Aspects, Criteria, and Examples. International Workshop on Distributed Systems: Operations & Management
World Economic Forum – WEF (2020). Challenges and Opportunities in the Post- COVID-19 World – Insight report. Geneva: World Economic Forum. Online available: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Challenges_and_Opportunities_Post_COVID_19.pdf
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2022 Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
Confirmo que el trabajo es original (de mi/nuestra autoría), y que no se someterá a otras revistas o publicaciones hasta la resolución definitiva del proceso de revisión en PASOS, RTPC.
Autorizo la publicación de mi trabajo por PASOS, RTPC de acceso abierto y gratuito en cualquiera de los formatos que estime oportunos, por un plazo indeterminado y a título de colaboración no remunerada.
Asimismo, el/los autor/es entiende/n que el trabajo publicado podrá vincularse o depositarse en cualquier servidor o ser incluido en otras publicaciones (republicación), siempre y cuando el nuevo lugar y/o la nueva edición referencie la publicación original y reconozca la autoría y la propiedad del copyright de las publicaciones de PASOS RTPC.
Los/as autores/as entienden que se realizará una comprobación de plagio-autoplagio, pudiendo retirarse el artículo en cualquier momento del flujo editorial