Predictive Modeling for Sustainable Pilgrim Flow Management on Saint James Way

Yago Atrio Lema; Isabel Neira Gómez; María L. del Río

doi:10.25145/j.pasos.2025.23.029

Autores

Yago Atrio Lema Universidad de Santiago de Compostela https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2499-0662
Isabel Neira Gómez Universidad de Santiago de Compostela https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0619-5964
María L. del Río Universidad de Santiago de Compostela https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2712-1139

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2025.23.029

Palavras-chave:

Overtourism, modelos preditivos, gestão, Caminho de Santiago

Resumo

Quando os destinos se encontram numa fase de crescimento ou de maturidade, é frequente surgirem dois debates simultâneos: o overtourism existe e - se existir - tem consequências negativas? A literatura tem tentado dar respostas científicas a estas questões, analisando casos de destinos urbanos e de sol e praia. Os elementos diferenciadores dos destinos rurais em relação a esta questão têm sido geralmente negligenciados. Este estudo apresenta uma ferramenta de previsão construída especificamente para um destino em crescimento localizado - quase inteiramente - num ambiente rural: o Caminho de Santiago. Com base em informações recolhidas nos últimos 20 anos pelo Gabinete de Acolhimento ao Peregrino, sobre mais de 4 milhões de peregrinos, esta ferramenta de previsão tem como objetivo prever o número de peregrinos que passam por uma série de hotspots - utilizando o método SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Seasonal Integrated Moving Average) -, e modelos Trigonométricos de sazonalidade, transformação Box-Cox, erros ARMA, Tendência e Componentes Sazonais (TBATS) - ajudando a gerir o fluxo de peregrinos e, assim, controlar as possíveis consequências negativas do overtourism, optimizando a experiência dos turistas, empresários e residentes dos hotspots.

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