Predictive Modeling for Sustainable Pilgrim Flow Management on Saint James Way

Yago Atrio Lema; Isabel Neira Gómez; María L. del Río

doi:10.25145/j.pasos.2025.23.029

Authors

Yago Atrio ECOBAS, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2499-0662
Isabel Neira Gómez Universidad de Santiago de Compostela https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0619-5964
María L. del Río Universidad de Santiago de Compostela https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2712-1139

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2025.23.029

Keywords:

Overtourism, Predictive models, Management, Saint James Way

Abstract

When destinations are in a growth or maturity phase, two simultaneous debates usually arise: is there overtourism? and -if it exists- Does it have negative consequences? The literature has been concerned with providing scientific answers to these questions analyzing cases of urban and sun and beach destinations. The differential elements of rural destinations in relation to this topic have been usually neglected. This study presents a prediction instrument built specifically for a growing destination located - almost entirely - in a rural environment: Saint James Way. Based on the information collected over the last 20 years by the Pilgrim’s Welcome Office regarding more than 4 million pilgrims, this prediction instrument is aimed at predicting the number of pilgrims who will pass through a series of hotspots -employing Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components (TBATS) models- aiding in the management of pilgrim flow and thus controlling the possible negative consequences of overtourism, optimizing the experience for tourists, business owners, and residents of the hotspots.

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