Previsão pós-pandémica do turismo recetivo por via aérea utilizando modelos Bayesianos. O caso da Colômbia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2025.23.047Palavras-chave:
estudos culturais, políticas públicas, turismo aéreo, demanda turística, turismo recetivoResumo
Este artigo faz uma previsão de médio-longo prazo (2023-2030) do fluxo de turistas estrangeiros para o país por via aérea, usando a Colômbia como um estudo de caso. Anteriormente, analisamos como o desenvolvimento e a aplicação de políticas públicas de turismo conseguiram impulsionar o turismo, com ênfase no turismo recetivo, nas últimas três décadas, até o ano de 2019 (antes do período de pandemia). Para atingir este objetivo, e como abordagem metodológica, é desenvolvido um modelo Bayesiano Estrutural de Séries Temporais (BSTS), concebido para trabalhar com dados de séries temporais, e amplamente utilizado para seleção de caraterísticas, previsão de séries temporais, previsão imediata e inferência de impacto causal. Dos resultados obtidos destacam-se dois aspectos relevantes: primeiro, que o crescimento da procura futura (afluência de turistas estrangeiros não residentes por via aérea) manterá a tendência apresentada no período de recuperação pós-pandemia (2022). E, em segundo lugar, os modelos apresentam valores de erro, medidos através do indicador MAPE, inferiores a 5%, o que torna o método BSTS uma metodologia alternativa viável para o cálculo das previsões da procura turística (a médio-longo prazo).
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