Pronóstico de la demanda turística de Chile basados en modelos lineales y no lineales estacionales

Autores/as

  • Cristian Colther Universidad Austral de Chile
  • Ailin Arriagada-Millaman Universidad Austral de Chile

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2021.19.021

Palabras clave:

Modelos ARIMA, demanda turística, estimación de corto plazo, series no lineales, series estacionales

Resumen

En este trabajo se ha modelado el turismo emisivo y receptivo que experimentó Chile para el período 2000-2018. Se han utilizado modelos de regresión lineal con variables dicotómicas y los modelos ARIMA con componente estacional para modelar las series y evaluar sus errores en los pronósticos. Los resultados muestran que los modelos ARIMA con componente estacional permiten modelar y realizar pronósticos de las series que recogen adecuadamente la dinámica de crecimiento y su comportamiento estacional con un menor error en el corto plazo.

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Biografía del autor/a

Ailin Arriagada-Millaman, Universidad Austral de Chile

Magister en Gestión e Innovación del Turismo, Ingeniera Comercial mención Economía.

 

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Publicado

2021-04-12

Cómo citar

Colther, C. ., & Arriagada-Millaman, A. (2021). Pronóstico de la demanda turística de Chile basados en modelos lineales y no lineales estacionales. PASOS Revista De Turismo Y Patrimonio Cultural, 19(2), 232-336. https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2021.19.021