Tourism Development Policy and the Use of Scenario Analysis: A synthesis model

Marco Martins; Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra; Lara Santos

doi:10.25145/j.pasos.2022.20.074

Autores/as

Marco Martins Investigador independiente https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2085-6020
Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra Instituto Politécnico da Guarda https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8788-781X
Lara Santos Universidade Lusófona https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6927-8906

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2022.20.074

Palabras clave:

Análisis de Escenarios, COVID-19, Responsables Políticos, Proceso de Desarrollo de Escenarios, Política de Desarrollo Turístico

Resumen

La pandemia de COVID-19 nos hizo aprender a vivir con un renovado sentido de los límites y un nuevo nivel de incertidumbre. Una de las respuestas de gobernanza que surgió de este panorama fue el cambio al análisis de escenarios, que genera narrativas sobre múltiples posibilidades futuras. Este artículo trata de responder a las preguntas de por qué y cómo utilizar el análisis de escenarios al definir la política de desarrollo turístico. Sobre este estudio se opta por realizar una revisión semissistemática con la intención de ampliar el campo de discusión y explorar nuevos caminos vinculados a la temática de la política de desarrollo turístico. Respecta a la política de desarrollo turístico, el uso de escenarios puede resultar una técnica experimental valiosa para desarrollar ideas innovadoras. Con ese fin, en este artículo se propone un modelo de proceso de desarrollo de escenarios para formuladores de políticas y tomadores de decisiones.

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Biografía del autor/a

Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra, Instituto Politécnico da Guarda

Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra holds a PhD in Tourism, Leisure and Culture (2016) from the University of Coimbra, under the subject of health and wellness tourism and local development strategies. He completed a MSc in Tourism Management and Development (2009) and a Degree in Tourism Management and Planning (2002) both at the University of Aveiro. Recently, he obtained the title of Specialist in Hospitality and Catering (2021). Outside academia, he assumed management and coordination functions in several organizations, namely, Visabeira Tourism, Montebelo Golf, AHRESP, Caldas da Cavaca Thermal Spa, municipality of Aguiar da Beira and the CLDS Foz Côa Mais Perto project. He started working as a teacher in higher education, collaborating with Polythecnic Institute of Guarda, University of Maia and Polythecnic Institute of Viseu. Currently, he is an Assistant Professor and Subdirector of the School of Tourism and Hospitality of the Polytechnic Institute of Guarda, where he coordinates the Degree in Hotel Management and is a member of the Technical-Scientific Council, the Pedagogical Council and the Tourism and Hospitality Technical-Scientific Unit. He is also the representative of the Polytechnic Institute of Guarda in the Network of Higher Education Institutions for the Preservation of the Mediterranean Diet. He is an integrated researcher at CEGOT - Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning (R&D 04084/FCT, RG 3 - Tourism; University of Coimbra) and also collaborates with CETRAD, CITUR, UDI/IPG and CEDTUR and his main research interests are health and wellness tourism, tourism management and development, tourism and hospitality, sustainable tourism, wine tourism, gastronomy, tourism distribution, tourism marketing and cultural heritage. He has already published several peer-reviewed articles, books and book chapters, participated in research projects, co-supervised PhD thesis, supervised and co-supervised MSc dissertations, supervised MSc and Degree training courses, participated in scientific commissions of national and international events related to tourism and hospitality and has received an award.

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Política de desarrollo turístico y uso del análisis de escenarios: Un modelo de síntesis

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Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra, Instituto Politécnico da Guarda

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